Tuesday, January 08, 2008

You Know That "Recession" The Chimp Sez Ain't Happening? Merrill-Lynch Would Disagree

The Beeb has the story this morning:

Recession in the US 'has arrived'

Merrill said Friday's employment figures confirmed the recession

The feared recession in the US economy has already arrived, according to a report from Merrill Lynch.

It said that Friday's employment report, which sent shares tumbling worldwide, confirmed that the US is in the first month of a recession.

Its view is controversial, with banks such as Lehman Brothers disagreeing.

But a reserve member of the committee that sets US rates warned that it could do little about the below-trend growth expected in the next six months.

"I am concerned that developments on the inflation front will make the Fed's policy decisions more difficult in 2008," Charles Plosser, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said.

He was referring to the problems faced by the US Federal Reserve, which might want to cut interest rates to avoid a recession, but is worried about inflationary factors such as $100-a-barrel oil.

'Significant decline'

An official ruling on whether the US is in recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but this decision may not come for two years.

The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months".

It bases its assessment on final figures on employment, personal income, industrial production and sales activity in the manufacturing and retail sectors.

Merrill Lynch said that the figures showing the jobless rate hitting 5% in December were the final piece in that puzzle.

"According to our analysis, this isn't even a forecast any more but is a present day reality," the report said.
Of course the drones all lined up to deny it. And the scavengers are jacking prices on the Exchange today. But don't be deceived: It's here, and it's gonna be a bad one...Just in time to get blamed on the incoming President (if s/he's a Dem) or on Bill Clinton (if he's a Puke).

This news is just another indication to me that the deck is being stacked against the amelioration of ANY of the clusterfucks the Bushevik cabal has been instrumental in starting. A recession, national health care, the ICORP in Iraq, the Constitutional crises around "security" and liberty, the global climate crises, etc: all line up to make it all but impossible that any 'change' agent can effect any substantial contribution to solving them.

Which works to the advantage of the elite/oligarchy/aristocracy/plutocracy, which will trumpet the failures of any Dem (and ignore those of any Puke) to further undermine the Franchise, as well as the rest of the 'democratic experiment.' In addition, if Shrillary or Obama is actually installed, their failures will be used to indict the whole panopy opf interests they might be seen as representing.

Oh, by the way: ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, oil will likely hit $150/bbl by the time of the "election." If a tanker gets sunk in the Straits of Hormuz, it'll be $200-plus. When gas is $5/gal, for whom do you suppose the USers will vote? I remember the Cliff Robertson character in the final scene of "3 Days of the Condor." There will be all-out war!

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